Propedia NBA Cheat Sheet

LEGEND

CONF - Consistency score: the weighted hit rate at today's line (Season 30%, Last 20 25%, Last 10 20%, Last 5 15%, Head-to-head 10%).

EDGE - CONF minus the implied probability of the book odds. Positive means our history-based number beats the market price.

Stars - ★ edge +7 or more · ★★ +13 or more · ★★★ +20 or more.

Cushion - the small number under each average: the average minus the line.

Hit-rate bars - green when a window's hit rate beats the implied probability (the dashed line), red when it falls short.

DvP - the opponent's FantasyPros rank against his primary position in tonight's rotation, current season (1 = toughest, fewest allowed; 30 = softest). Same table the player cards use, so the two always agree.

Overs only. Injured / out / game-time-decision players excluded. Lines are the consensus across books. Click a player's name to open their full player card, set to that prop. 21+. Bet responsibly.

Min streak

Min H2H

One row per player and prop: the highest milestone clearing the filter head-to-head vs tonight's opponent. Tap a player to open their card - full splits inside, with a link to their full player card.

LEGEND - MILESTONE TRENDS

Milestone - a round-number threshold (15+ points, 2+ threes), not a book line. H2H - career hit rate vs tonight's opponent, last 5 seasons incl. playoffs. Odds - the best price listed for that milestone in the morning PropLine pull (FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM preferred); a dash means no book listed that rung. EDGE - H2H hit rate minus the book's implied %. Bars - the most recent meetings, green when the milestone cleared. Click a column header to sort; tap a player for their splits.

Grade

LEGEND - MATCHUPS

Grade - 40% defence-vs-position rank, 20% team defence rank, 20% last-5 hit rate at the line, 20% last-5 cushion vs the line. A+ is the softest spot on the slate, D- the toughest. Same grade as the daily Matchups cards - one formula everywhere.

SIM % - how often the player cleared this line across 10,000 sims. SIM PROJ - his sim average for the stat. EDGE - SIM % minus the implied % of the over price.

L5 HIT / L5 AVG - his last 5 games against tonight's line: green ticks cleared it. TEAM DEF - opponent's rank allowing the stat overall. DEF POS - opponent's rank against his position (1 = toughest, 30 = softest).

Grade and SIM % can disagree - the grade grades the matchup, the sim grades the player at this number. Click any column header to sort; the board defaults to grade order. Overs only; out players excluded.