QUICK LINKS
Brooklyn0-4Nets124
FinalTD Garden💥 SIM BLOWOUT POTENTIAL · BOS 58% UP 20+
Boston3-1 B2BCeltics125
Detroit3-1Pistons97
FinalMadison Square Garden💥 SIM BLOWOUT POTENTIAL · DET 33% UP 20+
New York1-3Knicks111
Sacramento0-4Kings103
FinalFrost Bank Center💥 SIM BLOWOUT POTENTIAL · SAS 63% UP 20+
San Antonio2-2Spurs130
Portland2-0Trail Blazers–
11:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena
Los Angeles3-0Lakers–
⭐ Projected Winners (3)
Conditions: Only teams with 55%+ simulated win probability are shown. ★ = 65-74%, ★★ = 75-84%, ★★★ = 85%+.
Criteria: Win probability blends the 10,000 possession-by-possession sims (player rotations and rates, the same sims behind the game sim viewer) with the DraftKings market, plus trend and matchup adjustments.
SAS ★★★SAC @ SAS · 8:00 PM ETmodel 89%
89%win prob
BOS ★★BKN @ BOS · 7:30 PM ETmodel 84%; BOS on back-to-back
82%win prob
DET —DET @ NYK · 8:00 PM ETmodel 62%
62%win prob
Model projections, not guarantees. For informational purposes only.
👀 Props to watch - all games
＋
1
Walker Kessler o1 3PM POR @ LAL
Soft vs C all season (#29) + L7 (#27) · no potential data · hit 5 of 10
Over in 5 of the last 10 games
2
Julius Randle o1.5 3PM BKN @ BOS
Soft vs PF all season (#28) + L7 (#29) · no potential data · hit 3 of 10
Over in 3 of the last 10 games
3
Jayson Tatum o3 3PM BKN @ BOS
Soft vs SF all season (#26) + L7 (#28) · no potential data · hit 5 of 10
Over in 5 of the last 10 games
4
Victor Wembanyama o1 STL SAC @ SAS
Soft vs C all season (#30) + L7 (#27) · no potential data · hit 0 of 0
Over in 0 of the last 0 games
5
Damian Lillard o1.5 STL POR @ LAL
Soft vs SG all season (#26) + L7 (#30) · no potential data · hit 0 of 0
Over in 0 of the last 0 games
6
Ziaire Williams o1.5 STL POR @ LAL
Soft vs SF all season (#30) + L7 (#26) · no potential data · hit 0 of 0
Over in 0 of the last 0 games
7
Jordan Walsh o1 AST BKN @ BOS
Soft vs PF all season (#25) + L7 (#30) · no potential data · hit 0 of 0
Over in 0 of the last 0 games
8
Devin Vassell o14 PTS SAC @ SAS
Soft vs PF all season (#26) + L7 (#27) · 10.6 FGA L7 · hit 0 of 0
Over in 0 of the last 0 games
Minutes watch - soft matchup but not ranked:
⏳ Noah Clowney 3PM - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Josh Minott 3PM - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Sam Hauser 3PM - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Mohamed Diawara STL - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Tobias Harris PTS - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Julian Champagnie STL - bench role - minutes not bankable
+13 more not ranked (minutes risk)
Ranked: projected starters only · favorable vs position in both season and L7 splits · 🩹 players excluded until confirmed.
🎯 The 100% Cheatsheets＋
Keldon Johnson o0.5 3PM SAS vs SAC
5/5Last 5
Sandro Mamukelashvili o0.5 3PM LAL vs POR
5/5Last 5
Perfect runs from the game logs on file against today's PropLine lines. A hot run is form, not a guarantee.
📊 Model record · 35-22 · 61%＋
35-22 graded61% on graded sim picks
90% and up
4-1 80%
80 to 89%
5-2 71%
70 to 79%
15-11 58%
60 to 69%
11-7 61%
Under 60%
0-1 0%
| Player | Pick | Model % | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Pritchard | Under 17.5 PTS | 72.3% | 4 | Hit |
| Jordan Walsh | Over 4.5 PTS | 66.7% | 15 | Hit |
| Tre Johnson | Under 3.5 REB | 76.8% | 3 | Hit |
| Justin Champagnie | Under 8.5 PTS | 76.7% | 2 | Hit |
| Justin Champagnie | Under 6.5 REB | 75.6% | 2 | Hit |
| Leonard Miller | Under 5.5 REB | 72.7% | 9 | Miss |
| Kyrie Irving | Under 3.5 REB | 70.9% | 6 | Miss |
| Josh Giddey | Over 11.5 PTS | 70.1% | 11 | Miss |
Every graded sim pick in the ledger, wins and losses. Model % is the sim probability for the pick before the game.
Note
Lineups via RotoWire · confirmed lineups are usually announced about 1 hour before tip-off, or when the team releases them.